What result England need vs Denmark to qualify for Euro 2024 last-16 (2024)

It feels like England can't spend more than three seconds ahead in a tournament match before someone starts shouting 'It's coming home!'.

As a nation without the tournament pedigree historically to necessarily justify consistently being regarded as favourites we do seem extremely quick to pull the trigger on that particular chant.

However, whether it be poorly-aimed attempts at manifesting our destiny, mindless optimism or unconscious muscle memory, we are notoriously quick to sing our own praises.

In fact, the only thing England fans seem to do with greater zeal is, paradoxically, jump on the bandwagon of slamming our own team at the slightest hint of adversity.

However, before we get to talk of football coming home, we have the important business of actually making it out the group first - so what needs to go England's way tonight for the Three Lions to join Germany in the second round? And is a draw enough?

What if England win?

England beat Serbia 1-0 as we know,Jude Bellingham thumping home the only goal of the game with his increasingly marketable head to give the Three Lions the perfect start.

Whilst earlier that day, Denmark were held to a perhaps surprise 1-1 draw by Slovenia with Jan Oblak, Benjamin Sesko and Co impressing on their first tournament appearance in 14 years.

Today Slovenia and Serbia played out a 1-1 draw, with AC Milan's Luka Jovic discovering the back of the net right at the death with a 95th-minute equaliser.

As such that leaves the group looking like this:

1. England 3pts (GD +1)
2. Slovenia 2pts(GD 0)
3. Denmark 1pt (GD 0)
4. Serbia 0pts (GD -1).

Therefore, as you'd imagine, a win puts England through regardless of results; their six points would be unassailable by more than one team, even if they did lose to Slovenia next week.

So a win is enough to qualify today, and it would also confirm their status as group winner.

What if England draw?

But what if England draw, I hear you asking, pitchforks within reach. Well, it wouldn't actually be the end of the world.

Seven points would be enough to take England through top of the group, as Denmark would only be able to muster a maximum total of five (one win, two draws), Serbia three (one wins, two defeats), while Slovenia could only get five if they beat England on Tuesday (one win, one draw, one defeat).

So if England draw with Denmark and beat Slovenia they're through and on top. But what if they draw tonight and lose to Slovenia? A draw certainly piles the pressure on heading into that last game.

A draw tonight could leave the group looking like this:

England would still remain top if today's game against Denmark ended as a tie. However they would need a draw or win in their final game to progress to the next stage.

If England loss to Serbia in their final group game, they would need Denmark to lose or draw against Serbia in their final game.

What if England lose tonight?

Well... again, although Southgate would likely begin to feel a little more heat than usual, England would still be able to go through top of the group if they can beat Slovenia.

Defeat tonight would see Gareth Southgate's men fall to second in the group standings - a point behind Denmark - and one point above Slovenia.

Therefore, a loss tonight, but a win over Slovenia on the final day, and England are still through on top with six points. Important to remember, even if things don't go to plan tonight.

It's a lot to get your heads around, but essentially: England win tonight, they're through. England win tonight and Slovenia fail to beat Serbia, and they're through as winners.

A draw tonight is not the end of the world, but they would need to beat Slovenia to be sure of going through top, while two draws would need the Three Lions requiring results to go their way, andthey could potentially find themselves in a three-way fight on five points with Slovenia and Denmark.

Similarly, defeat tonight is not the end of the world - though it may probably feel like it - and England can still top the group. Two losses make things somewhat more interesting, but let's not worry about that one too much just yet.

Who could England face in the Last-16?

In the spirit of getting ahead of ourselves, let's indulge in a bit of running before we can walk.

Should all go to plan, England will win Group C, which draws them against the third-placed side in Groups D, E or F - at the time of writing those are Poland, Belgium and Czechia, though Austria, Romania, Slovakia, Ukraine and Georgia are also likely contenders.

Come second in the group, and that could tee up clashes with the winners of Group A, which for all intents and purposes would be Germany, who have six points, seven goals, and a whole heap of plaudits from two games. It wouldn't exactly be ideal.

Finish third, and qualify as one of the four best third-placed sides, and England would take on the winners of either Group E or Group F - at the moment looking like Portugal or Belgium going of FIFA rankings, so maybe third place is a better option then second?